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Predictions for the New York Film Critics Awards: Will Tom Cruise and ‘Tár’ Begin Their Oscar Campaigns?

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Beginning in New York City, the initial portion of award season will be in full swing. The New York Cinema Critics Circle will be the first major body of film writers to announce its winners on Friday, December 2, beginning with the Gotham Awards, where “Everything, Everywhere, All at Once” won.

Members of the New York Film Critics Circle will vote without having seen James Cameron’s “Avatar: The Way of Water” and Marc Forster’s “A Man Called Otto,” starring Tom Hanks.

On Wednesday evening, the premiere of the Whitney Houston biopic “I Wanna Dance With Somebody” starring Naomi Ackie and Kasi Lemmons took place, however, it is unknown how many of the cast members were present. The film’s reception is likewise under embargo for several weeks.

The New York Film Critics Circle adores storytelling with depth and complexity (such as “Carol” by Todd Haynes) and rarely chooses the projected Academy frontrunner. In the past eleven years, the group’s best film winner has only equaled the Oscar winner for the best picture once, with Michel Hazanavicius’ “The Artist.” However, informal polling and study of members’ reviews suggest that the NYFCC is filled with fans of Steven Spielberg’s “The Fabelmans.”

There are also fervent supporters of “Tár” by Todd Field and “Everything Everywhere All at Once” by Daniels. In the case of the latter, Ke Huy Quan could be a shoo-in for an acting award following his rousing Gotham speech, whereas I believe many voters will support Stephanie Hsu, who plays the dual roles of daughter Joy Wang and the villain Jobu Tupaki.

However, never rule out the possibility of wildcard selections, such as “Top Gun: Maverick.” In the same vein as the group’s choice of Lady Gaga for “House of Gucci” last year, Tom Cruise could be their most jaw-dropping choice for best actor.

The panel is also susceptible to recency bias, as evidenced by their 2013 selection of David O. Russell’s “American Hustle,” which they watched the day before voting. That may be beneficial for “Emancipation” by Antoine Fuqua or “Babylon” by Damien Chazelle, both of which have devoted fans.

Predictions for the New York Film Critics Awards
Predictions for the New York Film Critics Awards

Many members are admirers of James Gray’s personal drama “Armageddon Time,” which might be adapted into a film or earn Jeremy Strong a nomination for supporting actor.

In the meantime, “Glass Onion,” the sequel to Rian Johnson’s murder mystery “Silver Linings Playbook,” could be a surprise victor with preferential voting (or possibly its performers Janelle Monáe or Kate Hudson).

Below are the top five predictions for NYFCC. The 2022-2023 Awards Season schedule contains all important dates and deadlines for the season.

Best Film

  1. “Tár” (Focus Features)
  2. “The Fabelmans” (Universal Pictures)
  3. “Everything Everywhere All at Once” (A24)
  4. “Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery” (Netflix)
  5. “Armageddon Time” (Focus Features)

Director

  1. Todd Field, “Tár” (Focus Features)
  2. Steven Spielberg, “The Fabelmans” (Universal Pictures)
  3. Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert, “Everything Everywhere All at Once” (A24)
  4. Park Chan-wook, “Decision to Leave” (Mubi)
  5. Alejandro G. Iñárritu, “Bardo, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths” (Netflix)

Best Non-Fiction Film

  1. “All the Beauty and the Bloodshed” (Neon) – Laura Poitras (director and producer), Howard Gertler, Nan Goldin, Yoni Golijov, John S. Lyons (producers)
  2. “All That Breathes” (HBO Documentary Films/Sideshow) – Shaunak Sen (director and producer), Teddy Leifer, Aman Mann (producers)
  3. “Fire of Love” (National Geographic Documentary Films/Neon) – Sara Dosa (director, producer), Shane Boris, Ina Fichman (producers)
  4. “The Territory” (National Geographic) – Alex Pritz (director, producer), Darren Aronofsky, Sigrid Dyekjær, Lizzie Gillett, Will N. Miller, Gabriel Uchida
  5. “Descendant” (Netflix) – Margaret Brown (director, producer), Essie Chambers, Kyle Martin (producers)

Animated Film

  1. “Marcel the Shell with Shoes On” (A24) – Dean Fleischer-Camp (director and producer), Andrew Goldman, Elisabeth Holm, Caroline Kaplan, Terry Leonard, Paul Mezey, Jenny Slate (producers)
  2. “Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio” (Netflix) – Guillermo del Toro (director, producer), Mark Gustafson (director), Alexander Bulkley, Corey Campodonico, Lisa Henson, Gary Ungar (producers)
  3. “Turning Red” (Pixar) – Domee Shi (director), Lindsey Collins (producer)
  4. “Eternal Spring” (ARTE) – Jason Loftus (director, producer), Kevin Koo, Yvan Pinard (producers)
  5. “The Bob’s Burgers Movie” (20th Century Studios) – Loren Bouchard, Bernard Derriman, George Chang, Janelle Momary, Nora Smith

Actress

  1. Danielle Deadwyler, “Till” (Orion/United Artists Releasing)
  2. Cate Blanchett, “Tár” (Focus Features)
  3. Michelle Williams, “The Fabelmans” (Universal Pictures)
  4. Michelle Yeoh, “Everything Everywhere All at Once” (A24)
  5. Dale Dickey, “A Love Song” (Bleecker Street)

Supporting Actor

  1. Ke Huy Quan, “Everything Everywhere All at Once” (A24)
  2. Jeremy Strong, “Armageddon Time” (Focus Features)
  3. Barry Keoghan, “The Banshees of Inisherin” (Searchlight Pictures)
  4. Eddie Redmayne, “The Good Nurse” (Netflix)
  5. Judd Hirsch, “The Fabelmans” (Universal Pictures)

Best First Film

  1. “Aftersun” (A24) – Charlotte Wells
  2. “The Inspection” (A24) – Elegance Bratton
  3. “Nanny” (Amazon Studios) – Nikyatu Jusu
  4. “Emily” (Bleecker Street) – Frances O’Connor
  5. “Murina” (Kino Lorber) – Antoneta Alamat Kusijanović

Supporting Actress

  1. Stephanie Hsu, “Everything Everywhere All at Once” (A24)
  2. Kerry Condon, “The Banshees of Inisherin” (Searchlight Pictures)
  3. Nina Hoss, “Tár” (Focus Features)
  4. Janelle Monáe, “Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery” (Netflix)
  5. Dolly De Leon, “Triangle of Sadness” (Neon)

Best Foreign Language Film

  1. “Close” (Belgium)
  2. “Return to Seoul” (Cambodia)
  3. “Holy Spider” (Denmark)
  4. “Saint Omer” (France)
  5. “EO” (Poland)

Best Cinematography

  1. “Top Gun: Maverick” (Paramount Pictures) – Claudio Miranda
  2. “The Fabelmans” (Universal Pictures) – Janusz Kaminski
  3. “Athena” (Netflix) – Matias Boucard
  4. “Nope” (Universal Pictures) – Hoyte van Hoytema
  5. “Tár” (Focus Features) – Florian Hoffmeister

Best Screenplay

  1. “Tár” (Focus Features) – Todd Field
  2. “Everything Everywhere All at Once” (A24) – Daniel Kwan, Daniel Scheinert
  3. “Aftersun” (A24) – Charlotte Wells
  4. “Women Talking” (MGM/United Artists Releasing) – Sarah Polley
  5. “Armageddon Time” (Focus Features) – James Gray

Overall, the New York Film Critics Awards are sure to bring some exciting wins and surprises. While there is no clear consensus on who will take home the top prizes, it is certain that the night will be filled with memorable moments.

With a wide variety of films and performances to choose from, the awards are sure to be an interesting event. As we wait to see who will be honored, it is important to remember that, regardless of the outcome, these awards are a great way to celebrate the best of cinema.

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